New Hampshire

It seems that former Vice President Joe Biden is no longer the front-runner in New Hampshire, according to new polling data.

A poll by Gravis Marketing published this week found that Senator Bernie Sanders (D-Vermont), who won the 2016 New Hampshire primary over Hillary Clinton by more than 20 points, is now the front-runner among likely voters in the New Hampshire primary. 21% of voters in the Granite State say Sanders is their top choice, while just 15% of New Hampshirites said they would vote for the former vice president. Sanders’ favorability margin is larger than the 4.4% margin of error, putting him comfortably in the lead.

Rounding out the top five are Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts), who got 12% support, “uncertain,” in which 11% of respondents say they haven’t yet made up their minds, and South Bend, Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg, who is polling at 8%. The poll was taken between August 2nd and August 6th.

6 candidates — Senator Cory Booker (D-New Jersey), former Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, author Marianne Williamson, former Congressman John Delaney (D-Maryland), New York City mayor Bill de Blasio, and Montana Governor Steve Bullock all polled at less than 1% among likely New Hampshire primary voters.

New Hampshire
Gravis Marketing poll of likely New Hampshire primary voters, August 2-6, 2019

Sanders overtaking Biden is New Hampshire is significant, as it marks the first time the Vermont senator has pulled ahead of Biden since the former vice president entered the presidential race this summer. According to poll aggregator RealClearPolitics, Biden led in three previous polls of New Hampshire voters conducted by the Boston Globe/Suffolk University, CNN/University of New Hampshire, and CBS News/YouGov. The only poll that showed Sanders leading in New Hampshire was conducted in February, before Biden officially declared his candidacy.

New Hampshire is seen as perhaps the most important of the early caucuses and primaries, as it’s the first primary contest in the nation (Iowa’s contest is before New Hampshire’s, but it’s a caucus as opposed to a primary) and tends to shape how voters view a candidate’s potential to stay competitive in the presidential race throughout the primary season.

(Featured image: Miller Center/Wikimedia Commons, GoodFreePhotos)


Tom Cahill is a contributor for Grit Post who covers political and economic news. He lives in Bend, Oregon. Send him an email at tom DOT v DOT cahill AT gmail DOT com.

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